German Weekend

chriscol · Apr 25, 2008

2. Bundesliga

Aue- Köln: köln pk,-0.5 @2.07

on paper it s a mismatch with Aue almost relegated and winless in last 8, while Köln is in 2nd place in tight promotion race nedds every win and is on a solid run.
But Aue exchanges the coach on Monday, which shows me they still have some hope (although they already started planning for Regionalliga) and could be dangerous , especiallyat home.
Köln comes in the mach with two key starters missing with injury. Midfield players Broich is out and top scorer Novakovic. Köln produces great results this season against the lower teams. only one loss to Osnabrück against teams ranked 8-18, which gives me another reason to be at least small on them. Broich missing should be much of a problem as he was not playing before in other games, but Novakovic could be interesting. he builds a solid tandem with Helmes up front and now Aue has probably to concentrate on just one guy which makes it much easier. Because of injuries only a small play

Paderborn- Koblenz: Koblenz pk @1.83

Paderborn is dead last and has given up hope, still they enjoy last games and open the play a bit resulting in 4 games going way over.
Koblenz is in a difficult situation. they are a solid midfield team who can beat everybody as shown in last weeks home win over top team Freiburg. They were in absolute safety until the federation decided yesterday to deduct 8 points from the for some financial irregularities in the past. Now suddenly they are just 2 points ahead of relegation zone. It tough to predict how the team reacts to this decision, but in the end they are the better team here and now will probably play with some extra motivation to get away from relegation zone again (where they dont belong). At pk it s a great line, because they should at least not loose here.

Regionalliga Süd

München- Stuttgart: München pk,-0.5 @ 1.97

You have to keep in mind the special situation that this year all team from 11th and lower get relegated and the amateur teams of the big club (like München and Stuttgart) are not allowed to promote to 2. Bundesliga.
Therefore the different form of the teams can be explained. Although STuttgart is still sitting close to promotion zone they have nothing to play for, lost twice in a row at home and showing no big efford lately.
For München on the other hand it s important to stay above tenth. you can see their focus on that recently as they are now unbeaten in 6 games and won last 2 home game.
Situation should make München a winner.

quantumleap · Apr 25, 2008

chris, I really like that München pick for the reasons you mention. After all, you are the king of capping the Regionalliga.

chriscol · Apr 26, 2008

1. Bundesliga
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Hamburg- Schalke under 2.5,2 @ 2.0
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Big match for champ league spots between 3rd and 4th. Hamburg struggled lately as they lacked any scoring (no scoreing in last 3 games), but today since a long time almost all players are available again. Only Jarolim is missing. They usually play safety first and froma strong defense which brought them lots of success last year and this year. This results now in 7 straight unders. Now with de Jong and Kompany back in the defensive midfield I expect them to play according to strength again.<o

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Schalke is actually doing well. They are 5-1-1 in last games in Bundesliga, but nevertheless fired the coach before last game and after the champ league loss to Barca. Now two former players are in charge and somehow inspired the team to a 5-0 win in first match (but it had mainly to do with Cottbus playing real bad).<o

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Anyway they can be very dangerous here considering that they also won 2 of last 3 games at Hamburg.<o

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Although the last 2 games went way over (5-0 over Cottbus and 1-5 loss at Bremen) I consider these games irrelevant for totals stats. They gave up at Bremen to get rid of coach and faced a week team with Cottbus. Hamburg will drag them into a slow pace game here, which is what Schalke likes anyway when playing away games. Sitting back and looking for the counter attack. Bordon and Kristajic are back in defense for them who are fitting perfectly to that kind of game.<o

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Hannover- Berlin: Hannover pk,-0.5 @ 1.91
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Basically both teams are in the middle of nowhere. Berlin is just 7 points ahead of relegation, but not in real danger. Hannover had a bad start to the year, but after mostly draws they have now 2 wins in a row and are playing the last 3 games over, which is back to their usual style. They have everybody ready for today and are putting usually on strong performances at home.<o

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Berlin is often unpredictable. They struggle badly right now and have 3 draws and 4 losses from last 7 games. Today they are missing Pantelic on offense with injury but welcome back Rafael and van Bergen. This Hannover pick is mainly against Berlin and their recent form , which I feel is due to a lack of care and motivation in the team. Hannover after the two wins might have a chance to sneak to a ui-cup spot if they go on a streak.<o

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Karlsruhe- Bremen: Bremen –0.5 @ 1.90
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Karlsruhe is playing out the season. They are in midfield and despite the away win at Duisburg (1-0) in last game, which was very lucky they don’t play well over last 2 month going with 2 draws and 4 losses before that. They are missing Kennedy on offense (who got season ending injury during the week), Reinhard, Carnell and Muziel and welcome back Franz on defense. <o

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Bremen on the other hand understood their situation 3 weeks ago. After slumping badly and going from 2nd to 5th at one point, cumulating in a home loss to Duisburg they have re-focused now and are back in 2nd with 3 wins in a row. The race for champ league spots is very tight but Bremen is probably the most experienced team and certainly right now the best performing team of the contenderers.<o

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They are missing Baumann and Frings which should be so bad as they are long time out anyway.<o

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I cant see Karsruhe stop Bremens run to the top.<o

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Nürnberg- Bielfeld: under 2.5 @ 1.99
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Big game against relegation. Both teams with decent results lately, so they both understand the urgency of the situation. Everything can basically happen regarding the side. , but I like the under. Bielefeld plays from a very strong defense resulting in 11 of last 12 games going under. Nürnberg is not a particular over or under team, but they can be dragged in a low scoring game. They have big problems with scoring and facing a defense like Bielefeld could make it even more difficult. In addition Nürnberg is missing Misimovic which is by far their best striker with 10 goals. In addition they are missing goalie Blazek and Glauber. Bielefeld is missing Mamanidis.<o

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Basically this will be a typicall relegation match, hard fought with few scoring chance. It will be tight and low scoring.<o

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Bochum- Duisburg: Bochum pk,–0.5 @ 1.91
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Bochum in the middle of nowhere, but playing nice and loose fottball. They are coming of an away win at Wolfsburg and usually perform very well at home. Since quite some time everybody is available for today s match.<o

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Duisburg is dead last, but not without hope. But a terrible home loss to Karlsruhe in last game as shown they actually might lack quality to stay in league. Strangely enough they won last 2 away game at Hamburg and Bremen !!! , but lost in between at home to Karlsruhe and Cottbus. So really not sure what we will see here today , but for sure Bochum will dominate the game.<o

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Regionalliga Nord:
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Braunschweig- Verl: Braunschweig –1, @ 1.79 <o

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Braunschweig is in fight to reach the important 10th spot. They are doing well lately , especially at home where they won last 4 , even against the top teams.<o

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Verl is basically relegated. Especially in away games the get destroyed loosing the last 4 games by at least 2 goals.<o

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Home strength vs. away weakness in combination with the motivation factor and playing the better team anyway makes it a ice play for me.<o

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Regionalliga Süd<o></o>
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Frankfurt- München : Frankfurt –1 @ 2.08 !!2 units!!
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Frankfurt in tight race for promotion has now won 5 in a row without conceiding and is probably the hottest team in league right now.<o

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München is below no. 10 right now with outside chance to climb up, but they usually struggle to score at all, which is not good against a dominant team like Frankfurt who also plays solid defense. It s a mismatch overall, with the better and hotter team at home, so a push should be the worst for this, but hopefully Frankfurt can score twice which should be enough to cover.

BOL to all<o

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chriscol · Apr 27, 2008

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Gladbach- München: Gladbach –1 @ 2.00
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Gladbach the league leader can almost clinch promotion with a win today. They won last 4 at home without conceiding. Only problem might be that they sometimes struggle to put teams away at home and win close ones, but not so in last games. Their best striker Friend is a gametime decision with illness.<o

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München got big,big home win last time around, which brought them into safety and nothing to play for. Before that home win they played bad and uninspired anyway and after reaching that goal I expect them not to put much of a fight here.<o

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They lost the last 3 away games.<o

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Wehen-Offenbach: over 2.5 @ 2.05 !!2 units!!
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Both teams still need points against relegation. Wehen is struggling big time getting only 2 draws from last 7. Although there are not winning there are usually plenty of goals because of their offensive style of football (but also vulnerable on defense). 8 of last 10 have seen at least goals with the other two ending on 1-1 draws.<o

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Offenbach slowly climbed out of relegation zone, but has mainly success at home. They are one of the weakest away teams in league with only 1 win from 14 games. Nevertheless they are fighting for the lives in last games which means 90 minutes trying to win. Although they are not a particular over team in 12 of last 14 games there was at least one score from both teams. Meaning the games that went under finished usually on 1-1. that s always a setup I am looking for when playing over. If you can be pretty sure that both teams will score, which history predicts with these two teams, there is a very good chance for one team going for two.<o

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If you add the situation that both teams basically need the 3 points against relegation I like it even more. <o

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Osnabrück- Mainz: Osnabrück pk,+0.5 @2.05
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Osnabrück fighting against relegation is a very strong home team. They have won the last 2 at home and usually performing well there especially against the better teams. It s simply a tough environment to play at Osnabrück. <o

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Mainz in promotion race is struggling big time in away games. Ok they are not loosing but they are not winning either. Only 1 away win in last 7 is not a good sign if you go to Osnabrück. A draw is likely here.<o

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Regionalliga Nord<o></o>
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Wolfsburg- Magdeburg : Magdeburg –1 @1.83
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This is basically a Wolfsburg fade. Wolfsburg is dead last and they are playing like that. They only have two draws from last 11 games and the losses usually a big time. You can also not see that they are better at home than away. They are plain awful.<o

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Magdeburg is fighting for the all important 10th place. They are playing better lately and are 4-2-1 in last games. The 2 draws and the loss all came against teams currently in the top five. So they should be able to get the important win here at helpless Wolfsburg<o

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that s it for today, i ll stay away from both Bundesliga matches, but if you have questions just go ahead.

BOL to all